EXAMINATION OF TRENDS IN DEPOSIT MIX DATA OVER TIME IN A LARGE SIZED PUBLIC SECTOR BANK IN INDIA

Abstract

1. Deposits in a Commercial Bank may be either in the form of Demand Deposit or Term Deposit. Demand Deposits include Savings Bank Account Deposits and Current Account Deposits, while Term Deposits include Recurring Deposits and/or Fixed Deposits of various flavor. Term Deposit usually carries much higher rate of interest than Demand Deposit and if the Deposit mix is heavily tilted towards Term Deposit, bank will feel the heat in the Profitability. Unfortunately, Deposit Mix of most of the commercial banks are having adverse Deposit Mix, resulting in pressure in the bottom lines.

The research paper is an attempt to undertake an analytical study to reveal the movement of Univariate Time Series Data in respect of three significant financial variables namely, Demand Deposit, Time Deposit and Aggregate Deposit, over time of a large Sized Public Sector bank in India, i.e. Punjab National Bank.

The techniques of regression diagnostics have been employed to judge the validity of the models. The best fit model has been identified by considering R2, Adjusted R2, Significance of F test, Box plot, Shapiro – Wilk statistics while, for forecasting Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is computed and considered. The analyses reveal that all dependent variable exhibit non-linear trends i.e. AD exhibits ‘Quadratic’ while both DD and TD exhibit ‘Exponential’ trend. Finally, the best forecasting model for each variable has been identified and forecasting for 2 years in advance has been computed based on best model.